College football championship game clinching scenarios
It’s usually a good sign that a set of tiebreaker scenarios is overly convoluted when a league indicates it won’t even bother to crunch the numbers (at least not publicly) until it becomes entirely necessary.
That’s the deal this week in the Big 12, which has a relatively easy version of things (if Texas beats Texas Tech on Friday) and a murkier version (if the Red Raiders roll into Austin and upset the Longhorns).
It’s best to start with the most straightforward path any team enjoys. Texas (10-1, 7-1) will claim an outright regular season title with a victory and move on to its last Big 12 title game Dec. 2 in Arlington, Tex.
If the Longhorns win, Oklahoma State (8-3, 6-2) can take the second spot in the championship by defeating Brigham Young (5-6, 2-6). Were the Cowboys to lose, Oklahoma (9-2, 6-2) would be the next in line if it dispatches Texas Christian (5-6, 3-5). Should both Sooner State schools fall to sub-.500 teams, the next team up would be Kansas State (8-3, 6-2) — but only if it beats Iowa State (6-5, 5-3) in Farmageddon.
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If all three lose? There could be a four-way (with Iowa State) or five-way (plus West Virginia if it beats Baylor) logjam. Unsurprisingly, it’s not easy to come up with common opponents to break a tie in a 14-team league. Kansas is the only team Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State all played this season, but West Virginia didn’t face the Jayhawks. That means the combined winning percentage of each team’s Big 12 opponents in league games probably breaks this tie.
And if Texas loses, things get really thorny. The Longhorns could end up in as large as a four-way tie for first (with Kansas State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State). Or there could be unadulterated chaos with a six-way tie for second at 6-3 (involving Iowa State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and West Virginia).
The Big 12 probably has it right to keep quiet at this point. Despite all the headaches Texas and Oklahoma created by announcing they would depart for the SEC next summer, maybe they can save the league office a few Advils or Tylenols by handling business Friday in their final regular season games as Big 12 members.
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The other nine conferences’ scenarios aren’t so wild, and four of the league title-game matchups are already set. Here’s a rundown of who can still make it to the first weekend in December:
ACC: Next week’s matchup in Charlotte is set. Both Florida State (at Florida) and Louisville (vs. Kentucky) close out the regular season against in-state nonconference foes. Florida State (11-0, 8-0) will make its first ACC title-game appearance since 2014, while the Cardinals (10-1, 7-1) will play in a conference championship game for the first time.
Big Ten: Michigan and Ohio State (both 11-0, 8-0) have been on a collision course all season, and they’ll meet Saturday in Ann Arbor to decide the final Big Ten East champion. The winner will face West Division winner Iowa (9-2, 6-2), which has clinched its place in Indianapolis and closes the regular season at Nebraska.
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Pac-12: Washington (11-0, 8-0) will be one of the two teams in Las Vegas and will become the first team in the Pac-12 era to go 9-0 in the league if it beats Washington State on Saturday. Oregon (10-1, 7-1) will earn the chance to avenge its loss to the Huskies if it beats Oregon State on Friday night. A loss opens the door for Arizona (8-3, 6-2) to make a surprise title-game trip if it knocks off Arizona State.
If Oregon and Arizona both lose, the Ducks will finish second and head to Vegas.
SEC: No mystery here: Georgia (11-0, 8-0) and Alabama (10-1, 7-0) have already clinched outright division titles. Georgia visits Georgia Tech on Saturday night, while the Crimson Tide can close out a perfect SEC regular season by defeating Auburn that afternoon in the Iron Bowl.
American Athletic: Three teams remain undefeated in league play entering the final week of the season. Texas San Antonio (8-3, 7-0) visits Tulane (10-1, 7-0) on Friday, and the winner advances to the title game. SMU (9-2, 7-0) can also lock up a spot with a victory over visiting Navy (5-5, 4-3) on Saturday.
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And if the Mustangs lose? It will come down to a comparison between them and the UTSA-Tulane loser in a composite of four computer rankings to determine the second spot in the championship game.
Conference USA: Liberty (11-0, 7-0) will play host to New Mexico State (9-3, 6-1) on Dec. 1 in this sprawling league’s title game. The Flames won the regular season meeting, 33-17, on Sept. 9. The only team that can catch or match these two in the standings is Jacksonville State, but the Gamecocks (8-3, 6-1) are ineligible as part of their two-year Football Bowl Subdivision transition.
Mid-American: The two best teams in the MAC have already met once, when Toledo edged Miami (Ohio), 21-17, on Oct. 21. The Rockets (10-1, 7-0) are three games ahead in the West Division, while the RedHawks (9-2, 6-1) hold the tiebreaker over second-place Ohio in the East Division.
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So it’ll be a rematch in Detroit on Dec. 2; Toledo will try to become the first back-to-back MAC champ since 2011-12 Northern Illinois, while Miami will aim for its second title in five seasons.
Mountain West: Four teams enter the week with a chance to reach the title game and, conveniently, they’ll account for a pair of head-to-head games.
The least complicated possibility comes if league leader UNLV (9-2, 6-1) beats San Jose State (6-5, 5-2) at home. The Rebels would then host the winner of Air Force (8-3, 5-2) and Boise State (6-5, 5-2) in the championship game Dec. 2.
If San Jose State upends UNLV, it would create a three-way tie among the Spartans, Rebels and the Air Force-Boise State winner. Either way (because Air Force, San Jose State and UNLV would have gone 1-1 against each other, or because there isn’t a complete round robin because Boise State and UNLV didn’t play), the top two teams in a “composite average of selected computer rankings” would play for the title.
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Sun Belt: Troy (9-2, 6-1) has won eight in a row and leads the West Division by two games, so it is locked into a place in the championship game for the second straight year.
The Trojans will get a rematch with Coastal Carolina (who they beat in last season’s title game) if the Chanticleers (7-4, 5-2) can deal James Madison (10-1, 6-1) its second consecutive loss. A Coastal Carolina loss would open the door for Appalachian State (7-4, 5-2) so long as the Mountaineers defeat Georgia Southern (6-5, 3-4).
James Madison, of course, is ineligible for the Sun Belt title as part of its status as a transitioning program to the FBS level.
Farewell, #Pac12AfterDark
This week brings the end to one of college football’s reliable delights, a present always there until the end.
No, not the Apple Cup, the annual meeting between Washington and Washington State. The schools announced this week a five-year extension of their series even though Washington is leaving for the Big Ten.
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(Credit to the Huskies and Cougars for getting it right; if they’re fortunate, Oregon and Oregon State will do so as well and the four schools can figure out a way to get both Pacific Northwest series into their rightful end-of-November slots again before long).
But #Pac12AfterDark? It’s gone in its current form and perhaps for good thanks to the league’s pending disintegration after California (5-6, 3-5 Pac-12) visits UCLA (7-4, 4-4) on Saturday at 10:30 p.m. Eastern.
The Golden Bears are playing for bowl eligibility. UCLA can’t help but feel good after smacking Southern California this past weekend. And it could be the last time these schools see each other for a while after playing every season since 1933.
The most appropriate outcome would include a trick play for a touchdown, a comeback from a 20-point deficit and the game being decided on the final play. That would be a fine tribute to the years of bonkers late-night football the Pac-12 (and Pac-10 before it) have provided over the years.
Orange blues
Syracuse got a one-week head start on its coaching search, firing Dino Babers on Sunday as he neared the conclusion of his eighth season in central New York.
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Some perspective on his tenure: When the Orange hired Babers, his stint working for Art Briles in any capacity was considered a major asset.
Babers promised offensive excitement, and to his credit Syracuse was fun to watch for three seasons. It even averaged 40.2 points while going 10-3 in 2018. But there has been nothing close to that since, and the Orange is about to average fewer than 400 yards per game for the fifth year in a row. Syracuse will be the only ACC team with that long a drought if Georgia Tech can total a combined 414 yards against Georgia and a bowl opponent.
If that isn’t the definition of stale, what is?
Yet it’s not as if Babers had the most plum power conference job. Syracuse has six bowl appearances since 2002, and a victory over Wake Forest on Saturday would probably make it seven. Toss out the good outlier of 2018 and the bad 1-10 outlier of the 2020 pandemic season, and what is left? A string of unremarkable, largely just shy of average seasons: 4-8, 4-8, 5-7, 5-7, 7-6 and 5-6.
And maybe that’s about what is to be expected from a program without the greatest nearby recruiting base, playing in a league not centered on the northeastern portion of the country and staring at two decades of evidence suggesting the halcyon days of the late 1980s into the 1990s (let alone the late 1950s) will not return.
The last time around, Syracuse plucked Babers away from Bowling Green in the hopes he would make the Orange different. He did — for a few years. But regression to the mean, both in results and in terms of style of play, was real. Maybe this time around will be different, but chances are a midpack ACC team usually tethered within a game of .500 will continue to be Syracuse’s level.
Five with the most at stake
A look at teams with plenty on the line in Week 13.
1a. Michigan and 1b. Ohio State. A pair of 11-0 teams meet in the Big House, with the winner heading to the Big Ten title game and the loser hoping 11-1 will be enough to slip into the playoff. If one team has more on the line, it’s probably Michigan. The Wolverines’ second-best victory to date (beyond its win at Penn State) came against … Maryland? Rutgers? UNLV? It’s not a robust résumé. Ohio State at least squeaked past Notre Dame on the road in addition to its home win over Penn State.
2. Oregon. A two-loss Ducks team isn’t making the playoff, even if it backs into the Pac-12 title game and beats Washington. Oregon needs to win Friday night at home against Oregon State to keep its national title hopes alive.
3. Texas. Another one-loss team that needs to win to remain in playoff contention. Think visiting Texas Tech (6-5, 5-3 Big 12) might be motivated Friday night in its final matchup with the Longhorns as conference foes?
4. Alabama. The Crimson Tide is in the same boat as Oregon and Texas, hoping to pin its playoff hopes on being a one-loss conference champion. Alabama will still get a crack at the SEC title regardless of how the Iron Bowl goes, but losing to Auburn (6-5, 3-4) a week after the Tigers got thumped at home by New Mexico State would sink the Tide’s playoff hopes.
5. Florida State. An undefeated power conference team probably shouldn’t require style points to earn a spot in the national semifinals, and it’s uncertain whether the Seminoles do. But without injured quarterback Jordan Travis, it would behoove Florida State not to have too much trouble with Florida (5-6) in the Swamp, lest the thought of it being significantly diminished begins to germinate in the minds of the playoff committee.
Heisman watch
A weekly look at the race for college football’s favorite stiff-arming statue.
1. QB Jayden Daniels, LSU (3,577 yards, 36 touchdowns, four interceptions passing; 1,014 yards, 10 TDs rushing). Daniels isn’t going to win the Heisman just because he shredded an overmatched Georgia State defense for 413 yards and a season-high six passing touchdowns plus another two scores on the ground last week. But that performance won’t hurt his chances. (Last week: 1)
2. QB Bo Nix, Oregon (3,539 yards, 35 TDs, two INTs passing; 128 yards, five TDs rushing). Nix got to face an overwhelmed defense, too, and he delivered. The fifth-year senior threw for 404 yards (his second 400-yard-plus game in a row) and six touchdowns as the Ducks cruised past Arizona State, 49-13. (LW: 2)
3. QB Michael Penix Jr., Washington (3,695 yards, 30 TDs, seven INTs passing). Penix’s ceiling was never going to be high on a soggy night at Oregon State. He finished 13 for 28 for 162 yards and two touchdowns against the Beavers. Realistically, his candidacy will come down to whether he can author a monster performance in the Pac-12 title game. (LW: 3)
4. QB Carson Beck, Georgia (3,320 yards, 21 TDs, five INTs passing; 104 yards, three TDs rushing). It was another crisp day for the Bulldogs’ first-year starter. Beck completed 24 of 30 passes for 298 yards and three touchdowns as Georgia shrugged off Tennessee, 38-10. A trip to Georgia Tech is up next, the first of two consecutive games in Atlanta for the Bulldogs. (LW: 5)
5. WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State (62 catches, 1,093 yards, 13 TDs receiving; 26 yards, one TD rushing). The Buckeyes didn’t need Harrison to do much — three catches, 30 yards, one score — while pounding Minnesota, 37-3. If Harrison is going to have a Heisman moment, it will be Saturday at Michigan. (LW: 4)
6. RB Ollie Gordon II, Oklahoma State (1,414 yards, 15 TDs rushing; 262 yards, one TD receiving). Gordon got back on track after a rough game at Central Florida, rumbling for 164 yards and three touchdowns in the Cowboys’ 43-30 defeat of Houston. Gordon shares the national lead in rushing yards with North Carolina’s Omarion Hampton. (LW: Not ranked)
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